According to ITYPEAUTO, the dominant notes of the demographic transformation can be summarized as follows: slowdown in the birth rate, contraction in emigration and increase in immigration, aging, approaching zero growth (see also census, in this Appendix). At the demographic census of 1971, that is, on the eve of the political-social crisis of the 1970s, the Italian resident population amounted to 54.1 million residents. At the following census (1981) it was 56.5 million residents, while at the census of 20 October 1991 the resident population was 56.778.031 million residents. These increases, high in the past and increasingly small in recent times, have maintained the Italy at the top in Europe by number of residents. The territorial density has risen to just under 190 residents / km 2: a significant value, lower only than that of the Netherlands, Belgium, the Federal Republic of Germany (and therefore of the two united Germanys) and the United Kingdom. However, it is essential to analyze the components of this growth and to envision what the combined effect of these components will lead to. These prospective assessments offer the scenario of a country with a halt in population growth and, therefore, on the way to problems that are even antipodical to the traditional ones, which instead derived from high population growth rates.
In 1992 in the Italian population there were less than 10 (9.8) live births per 1000 residents. This birth rate was well below that of the years after the Second World War, when there were about 20 live births per 1000 residents, and was lower than that of the decade 1971-81, during which the average rate had been of 14.2 ‰. The downward trend was continuous, as in the mid-1980s the birth rate was still around 10%. At that time the average composition of the Italian family was three units (parents plus one child), while a century earlier it was five units. Of course, this is an evolution common to all developed countries, but in Italy – in the opinion of demographers – it has recently increased, due to economic reasons, lifestyles,
As the birth rate reached such low values, the death rate fell as well. At the beginning of the 1950s it was from the 12th century; in the early nineties it stood at 9.3 ‰. The causes of death have profoundly changed compared to the past. At the end of the Second World War, deaths from diseases of the respiratory and gastrointestinal systems were widespread, while the presence of traditional environmental diseases, such as malaria, was still significant. During the 1980s, the most frequent causes were cancer and those of the cardiovascular system. As regards the environmental risks, the traditional ones, deriving above all from the presence of marshes, have been replaced by those deriving from pollution and, therefore, from the models of industrial organization and urban life. Obviously, the improvement in living conditions has produced a vertical drop in the infant mortality rate, expressed by the number of deaths in the first year of age: even at the beginning of the 1970s, 20 children died for every 1000 births in the first year; in the mid-1980s the rate had dropped to 10.8 ‰, and today it is around 8.5 ‰.
The natural movement of the population – expressed by the algebraic sum of the birth and death rates – tends to move towards zero. In fact, the surplus of live births over the dead, which averaged 4.5 during the decade 1971-81, fell to 0.6 in 1985 to stand at 0.5 in the early 1990s. However, it should be considered that the effects of the contraction in birth rates on the global population trend have been mitigated by the inversion of the trend in migratory movements with foreign countries. Until the 1973 oil crisis, the migratory balance of the Italy he had always been passive, that is, the emigrants had been more numerous than the immigrants; in certain periods – eg. during the 1950s – the liabilities had been very substantial. Precisely in 1973 for the first time the sign was reversed: in the face of 123,000 expatriates, there were 125,000 repatriations. Since then, the balance has remained positive, albeit for modest values: repatriation prevailed over expatriation for values between 5,000 and 10,000 units. This partly masked the demographic losses due to natural movement. As for outgoing movements, two thirds of the emigrants go to European countries, less than a fifth to America and the remainder to other continents. This partly masked the demographic losses due to natural movement. As for outgoing movements, two thirds of the emigrants go to European countries, less than a fifth to America and the remainder to other continents. This partly masked the demographic losses due to natural movement. As for outgoing movements, two thirds of the emigrants go to European countries, less than a fifth to America and the remainder to other continents.
At the 1981 census, 211,000 foreigners were recorded, a number that did not affect the demographic face of the country. However, the number of immigrant movements increased after that date. Two Mediterranean areas provide the greatest contributions: the African area, made up of the Maghreb countries (especially Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria), and some countries of the Asian area (especially Lebanon). The other more consistent flows also come from non-European areas, especially from the countries of Guinean Africa and Southeast Asia (Philippines, Indochinese peninsula). A notable flow took place from Vietnam after the North’s victory over the South: the refugees who managed to save themselves from the massacres carried out in the waters off Vietnam have largely flowed into Europe and a substantial number have entered Italian society. Immigration flows from the three main areas (Arab Africa, Guinean Africa, Southeast Asia) have strengthened over time, to such an extent that they have even affected the Italian urban landscape. Starting from the second half of the Eighties in some large cities – such as Rome, Naples and Genoa – real immigrant neighborhoods were formed, giving rise to a phenomenon that had hitherto been typical of other countries, such as the United States and France.. to such an extent as to even affect the Italian urban landscape. Starting from the second half of the Eighties in some large cities – such as Rome, Naples and Genoa – real immigrant neighborhoods were formed, giving rise to a phenomenon that had hitherto been typical of other countries, such as the United States and France.. to such an extent as to even affect the Italian urban landscape. Starting from the second half of the Eighties in some large cities – such as Rome, Naples and Genoa – real immigrant neighborhoods were formed, giving rise to a phenomenon that had hitherto been typical of other countries, such as the United States and France..
The decline in the mortality rate, which has just been mentioned, has resulted in the prolongation of life: in the early 1990s, more than half of deaths concern people over 75 years of age. The average age (and therefore the Σ of the products among the number of people present in each annual age class multiplied by the age class itself, all divided by the number of residents) which was 31.2 years in 1951, it increased to 34.9 years in 1981: 36.3 years for males and 37.6 for females. In the early part of the 1990s, life expectancy at birth was 73.5 years for boys and over 80 for girls. Obviously, an aging population is taking place. During the forty years of 1951-91, the percentage of young people (aged up to 14 years) dropped from 26.1% to 17.2%; that of adults (between 25 and 64 years) decreased (from 65.7% in 1951 to 54% in 1991); that of the elderly rose from 8.2% to 12.3%. The aging index, made up of the ratio between the number of elderly people (over 65) and the number of young people (under 14), rose from 0.46% (1951) to 0.71% (1991).). The social consequences have been considerable. Among the most incisive is the contraction in the demand for services for elementary education, caused by the reduction in the birth rate, and the increase in the demand for health services and social assistance for the elderly. made up of the ratio between the number of elderly people (over 65) and the number of young people (under 14), it rose from 0.46% (1951) to 0.71% (1991). The social consequences have been considerable. Among the most incisive is the contraction in the demand for services for elementary education, caused by the reduction in the birth rate, and the increase in the demand for health services and social assistance for the elderly. made up of the ratio between the number of elderly people (over 65) and the number of young people (under 14), it rose from 0.46% (1951) to 0.71% (1991). The social consequences have been considerable. Among the most incisive is the contraction in the demand for services for elementary education, caused by the reduction in the birth rate, and the increase in the demand for health services and social assistance for the elderly.
In conclusion, the transformations triggered since the early 1970s lead to Italy towards a sort of demographic revolution. The fact that the birth and death rates tend to equalize could mean that the Italian population is proceeding towards zero growth. In reality, the consequences are even more drastic. In fact, to ensure demographic stability, i.e. zero growth, there must be an average number of 2.1 children per woman, equal to a birth rate between 11 ‰ and 14 ‰: lies below this threshold. Consequently, the Italian population is moving not towards stability, but even towards a decrease, following in this the behavior of developed countries. Sweden (since 1967), Federal Germany (since 1969) have set out along this road,
However, in Italy the process took on an original aspect, as it took shape more rapidly than elsewhere.
